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The Gibbons Report: 27 June 2025


GREEN LIGHT FOR KAROO FRACKING?

Gwede Mantashe says mining in South Africa can’t be killed for the sake of fresh air.

The Minerals and Petroleum Minister has again thrown his weight behind shale-gas extraction in the Karoo.

Known also as fracking, a moratorium on shale gas exploration in the Karoo has been in place since 2011.

But Mantashe told Parliament that once regulations from the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and Agriculture are in place, he will lift the moratorium.

South Africa is about to become desperately short of natural gas, with supplies from Mozambique due to dry up in 2027.

Mantashe believes we should exploit our own reserves before we start importing from elsewhere.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVES IN Q2

We’ve just had the second quarter consumer confidence index from FNB and it shows consumer confidence on the mend.

The chief reason – the decision not to go ahead with a two-point increase in VAT and the survival of the government of national unity.

The index has come in at -10 in the three months to end June – from -20 in Q1.

There were other factors: the two-pot pension withdrawal system, reduced interest rates and lower fuel prices.

SA’S PRIMARY BUDGET SURPLUS

Also on the good news side of the ledger – South Africa has hit its first back-to-back primary budget surplus in 16 years.

That’s according to the Reserve Bank’s latest quarterly bulletin, which shows a primary surplus of R48.9 billion – or 0.7% of GDP.

A primary budget surplus is what’s left after all the bills have been paid – excluding the cost of servicing debt.

One caution – Treasury had forecast a primary surplus of R61 billion, so that’s a miss.

The Reserve Bank says that the number shows Treasury is practising some fiscal consolidation to reduce the borrowing requirement and to contain debt and debt-service cost.

RAND TAKES STRAIN ON WHITFIELD FIRING, D.A. ULTIMATUM

On the markets, the rand is taking pressure from the latest spat in the government of national unity.

It’s down 1% on President Ramaphosa’s decision to fire deputy trade, industry and commerce minister Andrew Whitfield and the subsequent ultimatum to Ramaphosa from the DA.

With a dollar at $1.17 to the euro – unchanged – the rand is now R17.86 to the greenback, R20.90 to the euro and R24.55 to sterling.

No reaction on the JSE, which closed last evening with the All Share and Top 40 both up 0.7%

London’s FTSE was up 0.2%.

In New York, the Dow was up just under 1% - the S&P 500 up 0.8% the Nasdaq up 1%. Those last two a fraction short of record highs.

Tokyo this morning is up 1.6% - Hong Kong and Sydney both up 0.1%.

Gold $3,298 – platinum $1,398 – Bitcoin – just on $107,600 and Brent Crude oil - $68 per barrel.